Will we run out of kerosene in 2026? Global reserves and passenger offsets
Kerosene Shortage in 2026: What's Really Happening?
No, the world isn't running out of fuel tomorrow morning. But yes, the European aviation sector is facing a severe kerosene supply crisis in 2026, and this tension has two concrete consequences for passengers: more expensive airline tickets, and thousands of flights grounded for which you are often entitled to €250 to €600 in compensation. The soaring price of jet A-1 is affecting Air France, Lufthansa, Ryanair, easyJet, Volotea, and all European commercial air traffic, against a backdrop of major geopolitical tensions and persistent energy dependence on oil.
| Kerosene Shortage 2026: Key Takeaways | Situation as of May 17, 2026 |
|---|---|
| Average price of a barrel of kerosene (IATA monitor) | $99 end of February, $209 beginning of April (over 100% in six weeks) |
| Days of coverage in several European Union countries | Less than 20 days (critical threshold for out of stock: 23 days) |
| Commercial flights cancelled in Europe since the start of the crisis | More than 13,000 flights, or approximately 2 million seats |
| Fuel surcharge billed by certain airlines | From €14 (Volotea) to €40 per long-haul segment |
| Possible passenger compensation in case of flight cancellation | €250, €400 or €600 depending on distance, in addition to full refund |
Kerosene Shortage 2026: The Geopolitical Causes of a Supply Crisis
The crisis that all the media are talking about in 2026 is not a shortage in the sense that the planet would be running out of oil reserves. It is a regional, primarily European, supply crisis, triggered by a specific geopolitical event and amplified by the aviation sector's energy dependence on a single molecule, fossil kerosene, also known as jet A-1.
The Strait of Hormuz, Middle East Tensions, and Iran's Role
The direct cause of the price surge is in the Middle East. At the end of February 2026, Iran partially blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime route through which nearly 20% of the world's hydrocarbon production transits. Added to this tension are the persistent frictions between Iran, Israel, and their allies, which weigh on the entire Persian Gulf and Saudi Arabia, two areas essential to global civil aviation. The partial closure of Hormuz immediately triggered a large-scale oil shock, comparable in intensity to those of previous decades.
The consequences spread in a cascade: fewer barrels available, less crude oil transported to European refineries, and therefore less kerosene produced by regional refineries. According to analysis by Cirium, several European Union countries had less than 20 days of jet A-1 coverage in April 2026, while the commonly accepted safety threshold to avoid a physical out-of-stock situation at airports is 23 days. To understand the evolution of these tensions and know when to buy your flight tickets in 2026, it is best to closely monitor the evolution of the oil market.
Why the barrel doubled in six weeks
According to the aviation fuel price monitor published by IATA, the average global price of a barrel of jet fuel rose from approximately $99 at the end of February to $209 at the beginning of April 2026, an increase of just over 100% in six weeks. OPEC did not compensate for the decline in supply from Hormuz, and the United States, the world's largest producer of shale oil, was slow to increase its exports to Europe. The result: a massive additional cost for all airlines, for which fuel typically accounts for between 25 and 35% of the cost of a flight. This price surge amplifies the inflation already observed in airline tickets since 2024, in a context of a broader energy crisis.
Cancelled Flights in 2026: Air France, Lufthansa, Ryanair, easyJet, and Transavia Face Rationing
Faced with soaring kerosene prices, airlines have two options: continue flying and absorb the loss, or cancel less profitable flights. All have chosen the second option, to varying degrees. More than 13,000 commercial flights and approximately 2 million seats have already been cancelled in Europe since the start of the crisis, according to initial analyses. The summer season of 2026 is expected to be particularly strained for holidaymakers as well as for low-cost airlines.
Transavia, the first French airline to announce rationing
Transavia France was the first French airline to officially announce flight cancellations related to the kerosene shortage in spring 2026, on routes deemed unprofitable at current barrel prices. Other operators followed suit, mainly on secondary routes and charter destinations from Paris Roissy Charles de Gaulle and Orly. The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGAC) and the French Ministry of Transport are working in parallel with Brussels on a contingency plan to secure supply, but the French government acknowledges that no miracle solution exists in the short term.
Ryanair, easyJet and Lufthansa: who cancels, who rations, who overcharges
Major European airlines are each adopting their own strategy. Ryanair, through Michael O'Leary, announced targeted flight reductions on less-filled short-haul routes and an average increase in new ticket prices. EasyJet followed the same logic on its European network. Lufthansa embarked on a more structural plan, optimizing air freight and arbitrating between long-haul and short-haul routes, while limiting the impact on its hubs in Frankfurt and Munich. Air France, for its part, prioritized maintaining its long-haul air traffic at the expense of certain regional routes. To compare baggage conditions and limit surprises in addition to the fuel surcharge, take a look at the baggage rules at Ryanair and easyJet, which remain the primary levers for savings on these airlines.
Fuel Surcharges and Passenger Rights: What Brussels Allows and Forbids
The European Commission has ruled several times in recent weeks on the issue of surcharges and compensation. The official position is clear: the high price of kerosene does not constitute an extraordinary circumstance within the meaning of European Regulation 261/2004. In other words, if an airline cancels your flight because its fuel costs too much, it still owes you flat-rate compensation in addition to a full refund of your air ticket.
The Volotea case: +€14 on tickets already purchased since March 2026
The most publicized case is that of Volotea. Since March 16, 2026, the airline can apply a maximum surcharge of €14 per passenger per flight on tickets already purchased. In return, passengers benefit from increased flexibility, with the possibility of changing or canceling their flight free of charge up to four hours before departure. To properly prepare a trip with this low-cost airline and know what baggage to bring in the cabin with Volotea, it is now also necessary to anticipate this additional cost.
What Brussels has explicitly forbidden
Brussels reiterated in May 2026 that airlines cannot retroactively increase the price of an already paid ticket, outside of a clear contractual arrangement accepted at the time of purchase. Fuel surcharges billed by certain airlines on new tickets, however, remain legal, provided they are announced at the time of purchase. On long-haul flights, these surcharges can reach €23 to €40 per passenger per segment, a significant inflation for holidaymakers traveling with family. For more information on the applicable regulatory framework, you can consult the official European Commission page dedicated to air passenger rights.
Flight Cancelled Due to Kerosene Shortage: How to Claim €250 to €600 Compensation in 2026
This is the big news for passengers in 2026. If an airline cancels your flight for economic reasons related to the soaring price of kerosene, you are theoretically eligible for the flat-rate compensation provided for by European Regulation 261/2004, in addition to a full refund of your air ticket.
How much can you receive based on distance?
European Regulation 261/2004 provides for three compensation levels in the event of a late cancellation, i.e., less than fourteen days before the scheduled departure. These amounts are paid in addition to the ticket refund and are the same regardless of the travel class.
| Flight type and distance | Fixed compensation per passenger |
|---|---|
| Intra-European flight up to 1,500 km | €250 |
| Intra-European flight over 1,500 km | €400 |
| Flight outside the European Union between 1,500 and 3,500 km | €400 |
| Long-haul flight outside the European Union over 3,500 km | €600 |
In addition to this compensation, the airline must offer you the choice between a full refund within seven days and re-routing to your final destination. If the wait at the airport is prolonged, it must also cover meals, accommodation, transport between the airport and the hotel, and a means of communication.
Step-by-step procedure to claim compensation from the company
The process is simple, provided you compile a proper file. Here's how to proceed if your flight is cancelled due to the kerosene crisis.
- Keep all supporting documents: ticket, boarding pass if issued, cancellation email sent by the company, screenshots if the notification was via an app.
- Identify the official cause: if the company mentions the increase in kerosene price, you are eligible for compensation. If it cites a physical out-of-stock of jet A-1 at the airport, compensation may be contested but the refund is still due.
- Send a written claim via online form or registered mail, citing Regulation (EC) 261/2004 and the amount requested.
- Contact the DGAC or a specialized organization in case of refusal or no response within two months.
The good reflex beforehand is to arrive early enough to have proof of presence at the airport on the day of the flight. Our guide on the ideal time to arrive at the airport without checked baggage provides useful benchmarks so you don't lose your right to compensation due to passenger delay.
Traveling Despite the Kerosene Crisis: 4 Tips to Save Money in 2026
Fuel surcharges, rising ticket prices, inflated baggage fees... The 2026 energy crisis is steadily eroding vacationers' budgets. The good news is that there are four very concrete ways to absorb the shock without giving up on travel, and they all revolve around one simple idea: travel light, travel smart.
Choose the right cabin suitcase to avoid checked baggage fees
This is by far the number one lever in 2026. When kerosene costs twice as much, airlines pass on part of the bill to ancillary fees, and checked baggage is the preferred target: on Air France, Ryanair, easyJet, Lufthansa, and Volotea, the cost of a checked bag can climb from €35 to €75 per trip in 2026. Conversely, a good cabin suitcase with standard IATA dimensions is systematically included in the fare, even in basic class. Traveling with cabin baggage only can therefore save up to €150 on a round trip for a family, which largely covers the fuel surcharge. To choose a model adapted to the new rules, our guide on the best cabin suitcase for travel in 2026 compares models that pass everywhere without paying extra.
Anticipate ticket purchases and compare surcharges
Timing remains one of the most powerful economic levers, even in the midst of a crisis. Buying airline tickets 6 to 10 weeks before departure generally allows you to lock in the price before the next wave of fuel surcharges. Comparing fares between Air France, Lufthansa, Ryanair, easyJet, and Volotea remains essential, as each airline has its own inflation strategy. Properly organizing your trip from A to Z allows you to maintain control over your budget and avoid last-minute fees that add to the kerosene surcharge.
SAF, biofuels and sustainable aviation fuel: what it changes to your budget
Global production of sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, is expected to reach 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, up from 1.9 million in 2025 and approximately 1 million the previous year. This progress may seem rapid, but compared to the 300 million tonnes of fossil kerosene consumed annually by global aviation, SAF represents barely 0.8% of the fuel used. Airlines themselves are raising the alarm about the exhaustion of the biofuel and synthetic kerosene sector, due to insufficient industrial investment. In concrete terms, sustainable aviation fuel cannot absorb a geopolitical shock in the short term. In the medium term, however, it should accelerate the energy transition of the aviation sector, but by remaining slightly more expensive than fossil jet A-1 for several more years.
Should we expect permanently higher ticket prices?
If the situation in the Middle East stabilizes quickly, the price of a barrel of kerosene could fall back into the historical range of $90 to $120 within a few months, and airline ticket inflation could ease by autumn. If geopolitical tensions persist, however, significantly higher fares should be expected, especially on short-haul flights where the fuel's share of the final price is most visible. The rule for holidaymakers is simple: the less they depend on ancillary costs (checked baggage, upgrade, modification), the more easily they absorb the fuel shock.
Save money despite soaring kerosene prices
When airlines pass on fuel surcharges to checked baggage fees, the cabin suitcase becomes the number one anti-inflation weapon. Discover GYL cabin suitcases, guaranteed for life and designed to go everywhere without paying an extra euro in 2026.
Conclusion
The 2026 kerosene shortage is not the end of European air tourism, but it is permanently changing the rules of the game for holidaymakers and airlines alike. On the airline side, we are seeing a wave of surcharges, flight cancellations, and contingency plans of an unprecedented scale since the COVID crisis. On the passenger side, the good news is that the European framework remains very protective, with flat-rate compensation of €250 to €600, a full ticket refund, and coverage of accommodation and meal costs. Knowing your rights, anticipating your budget, and limiting your reliance on checked baggage fees by traveling with cabin baggage are the three good habits to adopt in 2026.
FAQ: Kerosene Shortage and Passenger Rights in 2026
Why is there a kerosene shortage in 2026?
The 2026 kerosene shortage is primarily linked to the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran at the end of February 2026 and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This strait handles nearly 20% of global hydrocarbon production. Its closure has driven up the price of a barrel, reduced the supply to European refineries, and placed several European Union countries below the critical threshold of 23 days of strategic stocks.
Why did the price of kerosene double in 2026?
According to the IATA jet fuel price monitor, the global average price of a barrel of jet A-1 rose from around $99 at the end of February to $209 at the beginning of April 2026. This price surge is due to the partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC's lack of reaction, and the slow pace of the United States in increasing its oil exports to Europe.
My flight is canceled due to jet fuel: am I entitled to compensation?
Yes, in the vast majority of cases. The European Commission reiterated in 2026 that the high price of jet fuel does not constitute an extraordinary circumstance within the meaning of Regulation 261/2004. If your flight is canceled less than 14 days before departure for economic reasons, you are entitled to flat-rate compensation of €250, €400, or €600 depending on the distance, in addition to a full refund of the ticket within seven days.
How much can I receive if my flight is canceled due to jet fuel?
European Regulation 261/2004 provides for three tiers: €250 for intra-European flights up to 1,500 km, €400 for intra-European flights over 1,500 km or flights outside the European Union between 1,500 and 3,500 km, and €600 for long-haul flights outside the European Union over 3,500 km. These amounts are paid per passenger, in addition to a full refund of the ticket.
Can an airline charge me a fuel surcharge after purchasing the ticket?
In principle, no. Brussels reiterated in May 2026 that airlines cannot retroactively increase the price of an already paid ticket. However, Volotea is an exception since March 16, 2026, with a maximum surcharge of €14 per passenger per flight, in exchange for the possibility of free cancellation or modification up to four hours before departure. In the event of an unforeseen surcharge, you can refuse and request a refund of the ticket.
Which airlines are canceling flights due to jet fuel in 2026?
More than 13,000 commercial flights and approximately 2 million seats have been canceled in Europe since the beginning of the crisis. Transavia France was the first to officially announce cancellations related to the jet fuel shortage. Ryanair, easyJet, Lufthansa, and Air France have also announced flight reductions on less profitable routes, in parallel with fuel surcharges billed on new tickets.
What happens if the airport runs out of jet fuel?
If an aircraft literally cannot be refueled with jet A-1 at the airport due to lack of stock, the flight is grounded, and the airline must offer a full refund of the ticket within seven days or re-routing. In this specific case of physical stock shortage, the flat-rate compensation 261/2004 may be contested by the airline under extraordinary circumstances, but the refund and coverage of accommodation and meal costs remain due.
Can sustainable aviation fuel replace jet fuel in the short term?
No, not in the short term. Global SAF production is expected to reach 2.4 million tons in 2026, compared to 300 million tons of fossil jet fuel consumed annually by global civil aviation. This represents barely 0.8% of the fuel used. Airlines are warning about the exhaustion of the biofuel and synthetic jet fuel sector. The energy transition of the aviation sector is underway, but it cannot absorb a geopolitical shock in 2026.
