Will we run out of kerosene in 2026? Global reserves and passenger offsets
2026 Kerosene Shortage: What’s Really Going On?
No, the world isn't going to run dry tomorrow morning. But yes, the European aviation sector is facing a severe kerosene supply crisis in 2026, and this tension has two concrete consequences for passengers: more expensive air tickets, and thousands of grounded flights for which you are often entitled to €250 to €600 in compensation. The surge in Jet A-1 prices is affecting Air France, Lufthansa, Ryanair, easyJet, Volotea, and the entire European commercial air traffic, amidst major geopolitical tensions and persistent energy dependence on oil.
| 2026 Kerosene Shortage: Key Takeaways | Situation as of May 17, 2026 |
|---|---|
| Average price per barrel of kerosene (IATA monitor) | $99 at the end of February, $209 at the start of April (over 100% in six weeks) |
| Days of coverage in several European Union countries | Less than 20 days (critical threshold for stockouts: 23 days) |
| Commercial flights cancelled in Europe since the start of the crisis | More than 13,000 flights, or about 2 million seats |
| Fuel surcharges charged by certain airlines | From €14 (Volotea) to €40 per long-haul segment |
| Potential passenger compensation in case of flight cancellation | €250, €400, or €600 depending on distance, in addition to a full refund |
2026 Kerosene Shortage: The Geopolitical Causes of a Supply Crisis
The crisis everyone is talking about in the press in 2026 is not a shortage in the sense that the planet is running out of oil reserves. It is a regional supply crisis, primarily European, triggered by a specific geopolitical event and amplified by the aviation sector's energy dependence on a single molecule: fossil kerosene, also known as Jet A-1.
The Strait of Hormuz, Middle East tensions, and the role of Iran
The direct origin of the price spike lies in the Middle East. At the end of February 2026, Iran partially blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime route through which nearly 20% of the world's hydrocarbon production passes. Adding to this tension are the persistent frictions between Iran, Israel, and their allies, which weigh heavily on the entire Persian Gulf and Saudi Arabia, two areas essential to global civil aviation. The partial closure of Hormuz immediately triggered a major oil shock, comparable in intensity to those of previous decades.
The consequences cascaded: fewer barrels available, less crude oil delivered to European refineries, and therefore less kerosene produced by the region's refineries. According to analyses by the firm Cirium, several European Union countries had less than 20 days of Jet A-1 coverage in April 2026, while the safety threshold commonly accepted to avoid physical stockouts at airports is 23 days. To understand the evolution of these tensions and know when to buy your flight tickets in 2026, it is best to follow the developments in the oil market closely.
Why the barrel price doubled in six weeks
According to the aviation fuel price monitor published by the IATA, the global average price for a barrel of jet fuel went from approximately $99 at the end of February to $209 at the beginning of April 2026, which is a rise of just over 100% in six weeks. OPEC did not compensate for the drop in supply from Hormuz, and the United States, the world's leading shale oil producer, was slow to increase its exports to Europe. The result: a massive extra cost for all airlines, for whom fuel commonly accounts for between 25% and 35% of the cost of a flight. This price spike is amplifying the inflation already seen in air tickets since 2024, in the context of a wider energy crisis.
Flights cancelled in 2026: Air France, Lufthansa, Ryanair, easyJet, and Transavia facing rationing
Faced with the kerosene surge, airlines have two options: continue flying while absorbing the loss, or cancel the least profitable flights. And all of them have chosen the latter, to varying degrees. More than 13,000 commercial flights and approximately 2 million seats have already been cancelled in Europe since the start of the crisis, according to early analyses. The 2026 summer season looks particularly tense for vacationers and low-cost carriers alike.
Transavia, the first French airline to announce rationing
Transavia France was the first French company to formalize flight cancellations linked to the kerosene shortage in the spring of 2026, on routes deemed difficult to make profitable at current barrel prices. Other operators followed, mainly on secondary routes and charter destinations departing from Paris Roissy Charles de Gaulle and Orly. The French Civil Aviation Authority (DGAC) and the French Ministry of Transport are working in parallel with Brussels on a contingency plan to secure supply, but the French government acknowledges that there is no miracle solution in the short term.
Ryanair, easyJet, and Lufthansa: who is cancelling, who is rationing, who is overcharging
The major European airlines are each adopting their own strategy. Ryanair, through Michael O'Leary, announced targeted flight reductions on the least full short-haul routes and an average increase in prices for new tickets. EasyJet followed the same logic across its European network. Lufthansa has launched a more structural plan, involving air freight optimization and balancing long-haul and short-haul routes, while limiting the impact on its Frankfurt and Munich hubs. Air France, for its part, has prioritized maintaining its long-haul air traffic at the expense of certain regional routes. To compare baggage conditions and limit surprises on top of the fuel surcharge, take a look at the baggage rules at Ryanair and easyJet, which remain the primary levers for saving money on these airlines.
Fuel surcharges and passenger rights: what Brussels allows and what it prohibits
The European Commission has ruled several times in recent weeks on the question of surcharges and compensation. The official position is clear: the high price of kerosene does not constitute an extraordinary circumstance within the meaning of the European regulation 261/2004. In other words, if an airline cancels your flight because its fuel is costing it too much, it still owes you fixed compensation in addition to a full refund of your plane ticket.
The Volotea case: +€14 on tickets already purchased since March 2026
The most publicized case is that of Volotea. Since March 16, 2026, the airline has been allowed to apply a maximum supplement of €14 per passenger per flight on tickets already purchased. In return, travelers benefit from increased flexibility, with the possibility of changing or canceling their flight without fees up to four hours before departure. To properly prepare for a trip with this low- cost airline and know which baggage to take in the cabin with Volotea, you must now also anticipate this extra cost.
What Brussels has explicitly prohibited
Brussels reiterated in May 2026 that airlines cannot retroactively increase the price of a ticket that has already been paid for, outside of a clear contractual arrangement accepted at the time of purchase. Fuel surcharges applied by certain airlines on new tickets remain legal, provided they are announced at the time of purchase. On long-haul flights, these surcharges can reach €23 to €40 per passenger per segment, which is a significant inflation for vacationers traveling as a family. For more information on the applicable regulatory framework, you can directly consult the official European Commission page dedicated to air passenger rights.
Flight cancelled due to kerosene: how to claim €250 to €600 in compensation in 2026
This is the big news for passengers in 2026. If an airline cancels your flight for economic reasons linked to the kerosene price surge, you are in theory eligible for the fixed compensation provided for by the European regulation 261/2004, in addition to a full refund of your plane ticket.
How much can you get depending on the distance?
European regulation 261/2004 provides for three compensation tiers in the event of late cancellation, meaning less than fourteen days before the scheduled departure. These amounts are paid in addition to the ticket refund and are identical regardless of the class of travel.
| Flight type and distance | Fixed compensation per passenger |
|---|---|
| Intra-European flight up to 1,500 km | €250 |
| Intra-European flight over 1,500 km | €400 |
| Flight outside the European Union between 1,500 and 3,500 km | €400 |
| Long-haul flight outside the European Union over 3,500 km | €600 |
In parallel with this compensation, the airline must offer you a choice between a full refund within seven days and re-routing to your final destination. If the wait at the airport is prolonged, it must also cover meals, accommodation, transport between the airport and the hotel, and a means of communication.
Step-by-step procedure to claim compensation from the airline
The process is simple provided you put together a proper file. Here is the procedure to follow in the event of a flight cancellation citing the kerosene crisis.
- Keep all receipts: ticket, boarding pass if it was issued, cancellation email sent by the airline, screenshots if the notification came through an application.
- Identify the official cause: if the airline cites the rise in the price of kerosene, you are eligible for compensation. If it cites a physical stockout of Jet A-1 at the airport, the compensation may be contested but the refund is still due.
- Send a written claim via an online form or registered letter, citing Regulation (EC) 261/2004 and the amount requested.
- Contact the DGAC or a specialized organization in the event of a refusal or lack of response within two months.
The good habit to have beforehand is to arrive early enough to have proof of presence at the airport on the day of the flight. Our guide on how long to arrive before a flight without checked baggage provides useful benchmarks so you don't lose your right to compensation due to a passenger-side delay.
Traveling despite the kerosene crisis: 4 habits to save money in 2026
Fuel surcharges, ticket increases, inflating checked bag fees… The 2026 energy crisis is mechanically eating away at vacationers' budgets. The good news is that there are four very concrete levers to absorb the shock without giving up on traveling, and they all revolve around a simple idea: travel light, travel smart.
Choosing the right cabin suitcase to avoid checked bag fees
This is by far the number one lever in 2026. When kerosene costs twice as much, airlines pass part of the bill on to ancillary fees, and checked bags are the primary target: on Air France, Ryanair, easyJet, Lufthansa, and Volotea, the cost of a checked bag can rise from €35 to €75 per trip in 2026. Conversely, a good cabin suitcase with standard IATA dimensions systematically remains included in the fare, even in basic class. Traveling with cabin only thus saves up to €150 on a round trip for a family, which largely covers the fuel surcharge. To choose a model adapted to the new rules, our guide on the best cabin suitcase for traveling in 2026 compares references that pass everywhere without paying a supplement.
Anticipating ticket purchases and comparing surcharges
Timing remains one of the most powerful levers for saving money, even in the midst of a crisis. Buying your flight tickets 6 to 10 weeks before departure generally allows you to lock in the price before the next wave of fuel surcharges. Comparing fares between Air France, Lufthansa, Ryanair, easyJet, and Volotea remains essential, because each airline has its own inflation strategy. Properly organizing your trip from A to Z allows you to keep control over the budget and avoid the last-minute fees that add to the kerosene surcharge.
SAF, biofuels, and sustainable aviation fuel: what it changes for your budget
Global production of sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, is expected to reach 2.4 million tons in 2026, compared to 1.9 million in 2025 and about 1 million the previous year. This progression may seem fast, but compared to the 300 million tons of fossil kerosene consumed each year by global aviation, SAF accounts for barely 0.8% of the fuel used. Airlines themselves are warning about the slowing down of the biofuel and synthetic kerosene industry due to a lack of sufficient industrial investment. Concretely, sustainable aviation fuel cannot cushion a short-term geopolitical shock. In the medium term, however, it should accelerate the energy transition of the aviation sector, while remaining a bit more expensive than fossil Jet A-1 for several more years.
Should we expect permanently higher ticket prices?
If the situation in the Middle East stabilizes quickly, the barrel of kerosene could drop back into the historical range of $90 to $120 within a few months, and air ticket inflation could ease as early as the autumn. If geopolitical tensions last, however, we should expect significantly higher rates, especially on short-haul flights where the fuel share of the final price is most visible. The rule for vacationers is simple: the less you depend on ancillary fees (checked bags, upgrades, changes), the more easily you absorb the fuel shock.
Saving money despite the kerosene price spike
When airlines pass on fuel surcharges to checked bag fees, the cabin suitcase becomes the number one anti-inflation weapon. Discover GYL cabin suitcases, guaranteed for life and designed to go everywhere without paying a euro more in 2026.
Conclusion
The 2026 kerosene shortage is not the end of European air tourism, but it is permanently changing the rules of the game for vacationers and airlines alike. On the airline side, we are seeing a wave of surcharges, flight cancellations, and contingency plans of a scale unseen since the Covid crisis. On the passenger side, the good news is that the European framework remains very protective, with fixed compensation of €250 to €600, a full refund of the ticket, and coverage of accommodation and catering costs. Knowing your rights, anticipating your budget, and limiting your dependence on checked bag fees by traveling cabin-only are the three good habits to adopt in 2026.
FAQ: kerosene shortage and passenger rights in 2026
Why is there a kerosene shortage in 2026?
The 2026 kerosene shortage is primarily linked to the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran in late February 2026 and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Nearly 20% of global hydrocarbon production passes through this strait. Its closure caused oil prices to spike, reduced supply to European refineries, and placed several European Union countries below the critical threshold of 23 days of strategic reserves.
Why did the price of kerosene double in 2026?
According to the aviation fuel price monitor published by IATA, the average global price per barrel of jet A-1 rose from approximately 99 dollars at the end of February to 209 dollars in early April 2026. This price surge is due to the partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the lack of response from OPEC, and the slow pace of the United States in increasing oil exports to Europe.
My flight is cancelled due to kerosene: am I entitled to compensation?
Yes, in the vast majority of cases. The European Commission reiterated in 2026 that the high price of kerosene does not constitute an extraordinary circumstance under Regulation 261/2004. If your flight is cancelled less than 14 days before departure for economic reasons, you are entitled to flat-rate compensation of €250, €400, or €600 depending on the distance, in addition to a full refund of the ticket within seven days.
How much can I receive in case of a flight cancellation due to kerosene?
European Regulation 261/2004 provides for three tiers: €250 for intra-European flights up to 1,500 km, €400 for intra-European flights of more than 1,500 km or flights outside the European Union between 1,500 and 3,500 km, and €600 for long-haul flights outside the European Union of more than 3,500 km. These amounts are paid per passenger, in addition to a full refund of the ticket.
Can an airline charge me a fuel surcharge after purchasing the ticket?
In principle, no. Brussels reiterated in May 2026 that airlines cannot retroactively increase the price of a ticket that has already been paid for. Volotea, however, has been an exception since March 16, 2026, with a maximum surcharge of €14 per passenger per flight, in exchange for the possibility of free cancellation or modification up to four hours before departure. In the event of an unscheduled surcharge, you can refuse it and request a refund of the ticket.
Which airlines are cancelling flights due to kerosene in 2026?
More than 13,000 commercial flights and approximately 2 million seats have been cancelled in Europe since the beginning of the crisis. Transavia France was the first to officialize cancellations related to the kerosene shortage. Ryanair, easyJet, Lufthansa, and Air France have also announced flight reductions on less profitable routes, alongside fuel surcharges applied to new tickets.
What happens if the airport runs out of kerosene?
If an aircraft literally cannot be refueled with jet A-1 at the airport due to lack of stock, the flight is grounded and the airline must offer a full refund of the ticket within seven days or rerouting. In this specific case of a physical stockout, the 261/2004 flat-rate compensation can be contested by the airline under extraordinary circumstances, but the refund and coverage of accommodation and meal expenses remain due.
Can sustainable aviation fuel replace kerosene in the short term?
No, not in the short term. Global SAF production is expected to reach 2.4 million tons in 2026, compared to 300 million tons of fossil kerosene consumed each year by global civil aviation. This represents barely 0.8% of the fuel used. Airlines are warning about the exhaustion of the biofuel and synthetic kerosene sector. The energy transition of the aviation sector is underway, but it cannot absorb a geopolitical shock in 2026.
